Chop-Chop has been the chosen opponent for the best lately at this weight class. However, it is not indicative to his skill level. Chop-Chop is not good enough IMO to be facing such top class competition (Judah, Mayweather and Cotto) at this stage of their careers. I feel that they all accomplished too much to be facing an opponent like Chop-Chop. It is more like a lateral move from a competition standpoint.
Of fights that I have really been interested in lately, a Cotto win has to be as sure a thing as any in this bout. I see Cotto breaking him down if Corley does not run all night long. I think Corley will visit the canvas before the fight ends.
From an odds standpoint, nothing is ever a sure thing, whether a fighter is a 10 to 1 fav or a 100 to 1 fav. However, for this bout, I can say with confidence that it is a sure thing that Cotto will come out victorious, barring a freak injury to Cotto. That is one's only risk exposure here, which is inherently involved each and every time one places a wager on boxing.
The over/under is a very tough one to call here. Cotto is perfectly capable of getting him out early (7 rds or fewer). But if Corley is evasive, it could go the distance. I like Cotto to win straight up. Safest bet, although expensive.